Thanks to economic recession due to Covid-19 and the lockdown, Bangladesh will soon beat Indian in terms of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) this calendar year. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Economic Outlook (WEO), Bangladesh’s GDP is expected to rise by 4 percent in 2020.
India’s per capita GDP, on the other hand, is expected to decline 10.5 percent which is the lowest in the last four years. According to currents statistics, India will become the third poorest country in South Asia, with only Pakistan and Nepal, reporting lower per capita GDP, while Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives would be ahead of India.
The WEO database suggests that the Indian economy will be the worst hit from the pandemic in South Asia after Sri Lanka, whose per capita GDP is expected to shrink 4 percent in the current calendar year.
In comparison, Nepal and Bhutan are expected to grow their economies this year, while the IMF has not divulged Pakistan’s data for 2020 and beyond.
MF predicts a sharp economic recovery in India next year, which is likely to push per capita GDP ahead of Bangladesh in 2021 by a small margin.
India’s per capita GDP in dollar terms is expected to grow 8.2 per cent in 2021, against an expected 5.4 per cent growth for Bangladesh. This will grow India’s per capita GDP to $2,030 next year, against Bangladesh’s $1,990.
India’s per capita GDP, up until five years ago, was around 40 per cent higher than Bangladesh’s. According to the WEO database, India’s economic contraction in 2020 will be its worst since the 1990-91 economic crisis when the per capita GDP had contracted 17.5 per cent in 1991.
Conditional fiscal stimulus at minimal 0.2% of GDP: SBI Ecowrap
