The vote share projections point that the contest between NDA and the opposition Grand Alliance will be neck and neck, as the winning needle may swing either way, after the third and final phase of polling which concluded on Saturday.
According to IANS CVoter Bihar exit poll, the NDA, with 37.7 per cent vote share, has a marginal lead over the opposition alliance, which is predicted to get 36.3 per cent vote share. Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party may get a meagre 8.5 per cent vote share while nearly 17.5 per cent vote share will be distributed among other parties and independents.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal, which has projected Tejashwi Yadav as the chief ministerial face, is likely to emerge with the highest vote share of 22.9 per cent followed by the BJP with 20.4 per cent. It seems the anti-incumbency has taken a toll on Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s chances to get a fourth term, as his Janata Dal (United) may get only 15.1 per cent vote share. Kumar, who is up against multiple rivals, had a tough fight in the backdrop of anti-incumbency emerging from his 15-year stint as chief minister.
Geographical regions-based district mapping indicated that NDA is consistently getting close to 38 per cent vote share in Anga, Magadh, Seemanchal and Tirhut, followed by 35.6 per cent in Bhojpur and 36.1 per cent in Mithila. Whereas, the opposition Grand Alliance is likely to get 40 per cent voteshare in Magadh followed by close to 38 per cent in Seemanchal and Mithila. The opposition is likely to get lowest vote share of close to 28 per cent in Anga. In Tirhut, the opposition may get 33.9 per cent vote share and 36.4 per cent in Bhojpur.
Political regions based on Lok Sabha mapping indicate, in terms of vote share, that NDA will be marginally ahead of the opposition alliance in East Bihar, Seemanchal and North Bihar. Whereas, in the Magadh-Bhojpur region, the NDA is likely to have a vote share of 40.3 per cent and the Grand Alliance has 36.7 per cent. Only in Mithilanchal, the Grand Alliance is ahead of the NDA, as the former has 38.5 per cent vote share and the latter has 35.6 per cent.