New Delhi: After the assembly elections of five states, Bhartiya Janata Party has failed miserably in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh which were under its control over a decade. According to current trends, it is most likely that BJP won’t be able to recreate Modi magic which it did in 2014 Lok Sabha election.
BJP suffered a massive loss in three key states and its vote share has taken a sharp dip in MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. BJP has lost as many as 180 assembly seats considering its previous seat tally which is almost 48 percent of 2013 assembly seats.
As per data analysis agencies reports, Bhartiya Janata Party may lose 44 Lok Sabha seats out of 65 seats in these three states alone.
In 2014, BJP had won 62 out of 65 seats in these three states.
However, a BJP leader said, “I don’t subscribe to the notion of State assembly elections influencing National Elections except maybe in terms of the built of momentum. The voting patterns across India are the testimony to the fact that Indian voters vote differently in National Elections Vis a Vis State election.”
The reality seems to be more complicated:
Loss of BJP in three states compared to 2013 is 48 percent. On the other hand, Congress has gained 163 assembly seats compared to the 2013 election and it is around 138 percent.
According to party-wise votes for each constituency, as per the Election Commission list, in Chhattisgarh Congress is set to repeat the BJP figures of 2014, i.e. it will win 10 out of 11 Lok Sabha seats. In Rajasthan, BJP is likely to get 13 seats as compared to 2014 clean sweep of 25. Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh, it will face the deficit of 10 seats and get around 17 seats compared to 2014 figure of 27 seats out of 29.
This dip in voting percent is clearly a big boost for Congress-led Grand Alliance or Mahagathbandhan in other Hindi heartland states like Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh.
In 2015 Bihar assembly elections, Congress has already seen the difference and will be trying to strengthen its alliance in order to gain more seats. UP by-polls have also shown the difference after Congress, Samajwadi Party, and Bahujan Samaj Party together won the bye-elections with a huge margin.
In 2014 General Election, BJP did a clean sweep and won all the 25 seats in Rajasthan, in Madhya Pradesh won 27 out of 29 seats, and in Chhattisgarh, it won 10 seats out of 11. It was a historical performance by the BJP who bagged the massive number of seats under PM Modi magic in 2014.
Apart from this assembly elections result this will definitely have an impact in the upcoming General Election 2019.