Italy’s school population will shrink by one million in the coming decade because of the plunging birth rate and continuing brain drain, the education minister said on Thursday.
National statistics bureau ISTAT has said births in Italy dropped to a historic low below 400,000 in 2022, the 14th consecutive fall, with the overall population declining by 179,000 to 58.85 million. A shrinking and ageing population is a major worry for the euro zone’s third-largest country, leading to falling economic productivity and higher welfare costs in a country with the highest pension bill in the 38-nation Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government has made the issue a priority since taking power last year, pledging to provide support to families to increase birth rates. Education Minister Giuseppe Valditara said pupil numbers will fall to 6 million in the 2033-2034 academic year from 7.4 million in 2021, with 110,000-120,000 fewer students entering the classrooms each year.
“The scenario is alarming,” Valditara said in a video message to a conference on the crisis. Pope Francis, who has warned that Italy faces a “demographic winter”, is due to address the meeting on Friday. The sharp drop in students might also cause the number of teachers to fall to 558,000 in 2033/34 from more than 684,000 at present, Valditara added.
Looking to help families, the government last week passed a labour package which includes a waiver on this year’s taxes on fringe benefits for employees with children, up to a maximum of 3,000 euros ($3,300) per worker. Valditara warned the decline was also a result of professionals leaving the country to find better work abroad.
“If demographic trends remain as they are today, in 30 years there will be 5 million less (Italians) and we will have lost 2 million young people,” he said. ($1 = 0.9084 euros)
