By Rohit Vaid
New Delhi, Oct 3 (IANS) Likely US stimulus package along with strengthening local economy is expected to propel Indian rupee’s further appreciation in the short-run.
Besides, fund inflows for corporate deals and a rising stock market will be other factors for the rise in the rupee’s value, cited analysts.
“Expect rupee to trade with a strong momentum next week within a range of 72.80 and 73.60,” said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates, Edelweiss Securities.
“RBI intervention looks feeble and may not act as a strong resistance.”
The RBI is known to enter the markets via intermediaries to either sell or buy US dollars to keep the rupee in a stable orbit.
On Thursday, the last trade day, rupee closed on a stronger footing at 73.14 to a greenback.
“The risk appetite has modestly gained on hopes of another US coronavirus relief package,” Rahul Gupta, Head of Research-Currency at Emkay Global Financial Services.
“So hopes of the US fiscal stimulus package rolling out soon before the election and the uncertainty ahead of the election result will continue to keep the dollar subdued and ultimately the USD/INR spot.”
“In the coming session, we may observe a sideways to negative bias in USD/INR spot. The 72.80 level will act as a strong support while 73.75 will be the resistance.”
According to Devarsh Vakil — Deputy Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities, India’s current account surplus of $19.8 billion (3.9 per cent of the GDP) in the first quarter of FY21 has boosted sentiments of rupee bulls.
“Risk sentiment has been buoyed by hopes that a US stimulus package is getting closer.
“If an agreement were to be reached, this would support inflation expectations and ultimately see the dollar weaken. The forward premia for dollar maturing in one year traded lower as exporters hedged their future receivables on the fear of further fall in spot pair.”
(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at [email protected])