New Delhi, Sep 8 (IANS) Seroprevalence studies in various cities now show 15-100 times higher infections than reported cases Covid, implying a significantly lower infection fatality rate (IFR).
According to a report by foreign brokerage Credit Suisse, some studies of age adjusted mortality show that India is not an outlier, and lower age/lower viral loads outside big cities may explain the low IFR.
The report said that the fatality rate remains low. “Seroprevalence studies in various cities now show 15-100 times higher infections than reported cases, implying a significantly lower infection fatality rate (IFR),” the report said.
“In newly infected districts, seroprevalence is still less than 5 per cent, implying it may take a few months to reach 30-40 per cent, when the curve starts to flatten,” Credit Suisse said.
It also said that the link between the pandemic and the economy is weakening, and the steadily lower case fatality rate (CFR) will drive progressive relaxation of administrative restrictions and fear.
Not only is CFR lower in newer areas, it has fallen in most districts due to better treatment, less virulent strains, lower viral loads and age profile.
As markets run 3-6 months ahead of the economy, now is the time to consider prospects of economic constituents post the pandemic, it said.
There is a risk of under-reported deaths, but with seroprevalence studies showing IFRs as low as 0.05-0.1 per cent, there is quite some buffer, the research said.
Even though cases have continued to grow steadily, and now nearly every district in India has more than 1,000 cumulative cases, deaths have remained stagnant in the 900-1,100 range for a month now, the report said.
As per the JM Financial Covid tracker, India has overtaken Brazil to become the second-worst hit nation after the US. Growth in daily cases did not decline this week, and stands at 2.2 per cent, akin to last week.
The tracker noted that there has been no improvement in all-India testing growth, but uptick in trajectories is seen for the seemingly peaking states like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Delhi.
As far as economic indicators are concerned, there has been an improvement in consumption indicators on both week-on-week and year-on-year basis. The recovery in industrial indicators is slow while rural indicators remain steady, the tracker noted.