With the Monsoon to be below normal this year, the western India may experience a poor rainfall, said Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency. The possible cause could be El Nino- a phenomenon linked with warming of Pacific waters. It is in fact being attributed as one of the key reasons behind a possibly weak monsoon this year.
Recently, another private forecasting agency – Weather Risk – has predicted an El Nino event this year. The agency said, El Nino may leave a negative impact on the southwest monsoon towards the end of the monsoon period.
However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) will announce its monsoon forecast next month.
While first half of the monsoon period might witness a better rainfall, the later half may see a scarce, said Jatin Singh, the CEO of Skymet, as per a report in HT.
States like Gujarat, Goa, central Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may have below average rainfall while east India, especially Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal are most likely to witness normal monsoon during the season.
“Evolving El Niño may start affecting the monsoon performance July onward. Nevertheless, presence of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could help in tempering the adverse impact of El Niño,” Singh said.
Moreover, the pre-monsoon rains would be less during April, leading to an intense heating of the land mass. “Pre-Monsoon activities may pick up pace during May,” Singh added.