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Home » Opinion » Bihar Election 2025 Results Likely to Surprise as Power Dynamics Keep Shifting

Bihar Election 2025 Results Likely to Surprise as Power Dynamics Keep Shifting

Bihar's election polls are expected to be unpredictable, with political shifts underway. The BJP aims to lead, while the RJD seeks to return to power.

Tarique By Tarique Anwer
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Bihar Election 2025 Results: The Bihar polls later this year are expected to be highly unpredictable. No party, whether it’s the BJP, RJD, Congress, or JD(U) can expect an easy win. Political shifts are quietly underway in Bihar. After two decades backing JD(U), the BJP now aims to lead, while the RJD is determined to return to power.

Two strong alliances are getting ready for a tough contest. On one side is the NDA, led by the BJP and JD(U), and on the other is the Mahagathbandhan, made up of the RJD, Congress, and the Left. Both sides are planning their moves very carefully. The BJP is aiming to play a bigger role this time, no longer happy being the junior partner to the JD(U) as it has been for the last twenty years. Meanwhile, the RJD is working hard to return to power.

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After winning unexpected victories in other states, the BJP feels confident and has set its eyes on Bihar. Their leaders, including Home Minister Amit Shah, have visited the state recently. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also expected to visit soon.

Caste Equation

Caste politics plays a major role in Bihar. Backward classes make up over 63% of the population. Extremely Backward Classes alone count for 36%. Dalits form nearly 20%, and the Yadav community, which strongly supports the RJD, makes up over 14%. Upper castes are only around 15% of the population, yet they received the largest share of tickets in the last election BJP gave them 47.3% and Congress gave them 40%, Siasat reports.

The Kurmi community, to which Nitish Kumar belongs, makes up only 2.87% of the population, but has been influential in politics. Nitish is once again the JD(U)’s choice for Chief Minister in the 2025 polls. But poll strategist Prashant Kishore has said that Nitish may be nearing the end of his political career.

Bihar Election 2025 Results: Political Challenges for Major Parties

In 2020, the RJD became the largest party in the Assembly but couldn’t form the government. They fell short of a majority by just 12 seats. The JD(U) and BJP formed the government with Nitish Kumar continuing as Chief Minister, although the JD(U) had won fewer seats than the BJP.

This time, the JD(U) wants a better deal in seat-sharing. In 2020, they contested 115 seats and won only 43, while the BJP won 74 out of 110. Nitish’s health and his party’s demand for more seats could complicate the alliance.

The Mahagathbandhan is also facing internal problems. The Congress and Left parties are worried the RJD will delay seat-sharing talks. In 2020, Congress contested 70 seats but won only 19. The CPI (ML), which performed well last time, now wants to contest more seats.

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Opposition

The RJD has picked Tejashwi Yadav as its leader and Chief Minister face. He is also leading the INDIA opposition bloc’s coordination team for the Bihar elections. A meeting on April 17 in Patna, involving six parties, confirmed his leadership role. But Tejashwi still has work to do. His main task is to grow support beyond his core voters Muslims and Yadavs and bring other communities on board. He needs a stronger campaign on the ground because voting patterns are changing.

The Congress has also noticed that its support base has weakened. Many of its old supporters like Muslims and Dalits have moved to other parties. To fix this, the Congress started the ‘Samvidhan Leadership Programme’ to reach out to weaker sections.

Nitish Kumar’s Future in Focus

Nitish Kumar’s political future is one of the biggest talking points. The JD(U) still supports him, but many are questioning his health and strength as a leader. RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav surprised everyone by saying he is open to working with Nitish again. Nitish, in a light comment, said he had joined hands with the RJD by mistake. Tejashwi Yadav responded firmly by saying, “There is no place for Nitish in the Mahagathbandhan.”

Tarique

Media professional with proven experience in news writing, content generation and people management. Strong expertise in political affairs, technology and data analysis.

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