Gold Prices: Gold has gone up almost 30% this year, touching around $3,355 per ounce, but now many experts believe it might start falling soon. Even though there are still serious tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea region, gold prices are staying steady. Experts think that the market has already reacted to all these issues and now might correct itself. According to them, gold may drop around 10% in the next one to two months, and maybe even fall by 30% over the next year.
Citi has lowered its gold price forecast for the coming months. It earlier expected prices to go up to $3,500 in three months, but now it sees that number at $3,300. For the 6–12 month period, Citi has reduced its target to $2,800 instead of the earlier $3,000.
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According to News 18, Ajay Kedia from Kedia Advisory told CNBC Awaaz, “In the past 10-20 years, we not seen a situation where simulteneous wars are happening in the Middle East as well as in the Black Sea, and still the geopolitical situation is escalating. In seven days of the ongoing Israel-Iran war, gold surged on the first day. But, after that, though tensions have escalated, gold is not reacting. It shows this factor has matured.”
What is Driving the Change in Gold?
Right now, gold is priced at $3,371.15 per ounce in the global market. Kedia said that many reasons like central bank buying, de-dollarisation, ETF demand, and geopolitical stress have already been included in the current price. He said, “However, whatever story we have heared in the past five years — geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, ETF demand, de-dollarisation; the bullion market has already factored in.”
He also added that prices usually step back during such tense times but may rise again later. “For that, gold needs to rise above the $3,500 level in the international market.”
Kedia explained more about the possible fall. “So, in the next one-two months, gold might see a correction of 8-10% easily. Gold may fall to $2,700-2,800 in the next one year. It might even fall to $2,400 if global tensions ease significantly.” That $2,400 mark would be more than a 30% fall from the current level.
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Gold Sellers and Buyers
Shreyansh Kapoor of Kashi Jewellers said rising prices are hurting the retail market. People are not buying much gold for weddings and big events because it’s too expensive. “In such a situation, people start selling their old jewellery to take profits. Higher prices also affect wedding budgets.”
He also said, “I have never seen so many people coming and selling gold. In my 25 years of experience, I have never seen that so many people are taking out their old jewellery to encash it. Earlier, 5-7% people used to come to sell back their old jewelleries. It is now 25%. It includes both exchanging and encashing.”
Many people are now using this high price time to make short-term gains by selling gold they already have.
Quant Mutual Fund also shared a similar view. In its June 2025 factsheet, it said gold has likely hit its highest point for now and may see a drop. “Gold has peaked out and has the potential to correct by 12-15% in dollar terms over the next two months. However, our medium-term and long-term views are equally constructive, and we reiterate that a meaningful percentage of your portfolio should be dedicated towards precious metals,” Quant Mutual Fund stated.
