Months before the General Elections, the widely considered Semi-Finals, the Assembly Elections of five states, will decide its winner on December 11. The fate of the five states that underwent elections over the last one month will be declared. Along with the result, some movement is expected to take place in Nifty.
When the election dates of the assembly elections neared, a large volatility was observed in the market. After Nifty nosedived as much as 9 per cent in the months of September and October, in November the market recovered some of its ground thanks to a fall in oil prices and a slight improvement in the performance of Rupee.
Hours from the counting day, the speculations are surfacing amongst investors.
Experts suggest that the market is set to react to the results but it’d be a rather one-day exercise and then the focus would zoom in back to macro factors once again. Further, experts state that in case BJP loses in the three states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, Nifty can be back to the 10,000 marks. In a situation in which the ruling BJP wins at least two of the three states, the market can take a different direction and instead go up to the levels of 11,000!
Given the dominance of BJP in the Hindi heartland, in case the party fails to perform well in the Assembly Elections, the market will have a weak view of the party’s prospect in the 2019 General Elections.
The election in Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram took place on 28 November, whereas Chhattisgarh Elections took place across two phases on November 12 and November 20.
Whereas, the election in the states of Rajasthan and Telangana took place on 7 December, while the vote counting of all the five elections will happen on 11 December.