Twelve Days of WEX-Mas: The Washington Examiner has, in the spirit of the season, identified twelve issues that we predict will have a lasting impact in 2024 and beyond. The ongoing struggle between the Biden family’s business dealings and Republican oversight, the emergence of a “new world order,” and disputes over redistricting and new election maps are all covered in these in-depth analyses of agenda-setting matters. Aspect Six pertains to abortion.
After more than five decades of dominating social issues discourse in the United States, abortion is expected to remain a contentious subject during the 2024 presidential, Senate, and state government election campaigns.
In the 2023 state elections, the Republican Party suffered several significant setbacks, including defeats in the governorship of Kentucky and the Virginia state legislature. Campaign strategists have recently had to reevaluate their messaging and policy stance regarding the contentious procedure in light of the underwhelming showing by abortion opponents during the 2023 election cycle
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In the following three areas, will abortion influence the results of the 2024 election?
Field of Republican presidential primaries
Early in the new year, cultural issues such as abortion are likely to heighten the tensions in the 2024 presidential campaign as the Iowa caucuses approach in ten days.
Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy both recounted their respective spouses’ miscarriages of their first offspring to an Iowa audience in November. Each Republican candidate emphasized how their respective faiths guided them through these tragic events and influenced their positions on abortion.
Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie and Ramaswamy have both argued publicly that the 2022 Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade rendered abortion entirely a state concern.
Although both DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley have expressed ambivalence regarding the notion of individual states determining abortion rights, they have both stated their support for federal abortion restrictions under the condition that a measure can navigate the intricate workings of Congress.
In contrast to his opponents, former President Donald Trump has been less explicit regarding abortion. While he is credited with nominating the justices who overturned the Roe v. Wade decision, Trump has expressed disapproval of Republican initiatives to ban abortion in the states, including DeSantis, by stating that restrictions at six or twelve weeks gestation are excessively stringent.
In the interim, President Joe Biden has reaffirmed his dedication to safeguarding abortion rights on a national scale. As leverage against Republicans, the Democratic Party continues to utilize its administration’s efforts to expand access to contraception and abortion medications.
Senate contests
In 2024, for re-election, eleven Republican senators and four Democratic senators are situated in Rust Belt swing states, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In a Senate that is narrowly divided, the retirement of Appalachian centrist Joe Manchin (D-WV) could place abortion at the center of a struggle for partisan control.
Ten Republicans who were up for a vote this year rejected the Democratic effort to codify federal abortion protections in February 2022, a brief time before the Supreme Court reversed the decision in Roe v. Wade.
Because Sens. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) have all supported strict abortion restrictions in their home states, these elections are crucial to monitor for voter backlash.
Steve Daines (R-Montana), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and a defender of Cruz’s endorsement of Texas’s comprehensive abortion ban, has countered criticism by stating that his organization “does not support a federal ban on all abortions.” Additionally, Daines supports exceptions for rape, incest, and the life or health of a mother.
Amendments to abortion
In the aftermath of Ohio voters’ November 2024 referendum to incorporate abortion and reproductive rights into the state constitution, several other states are contemplating their abortion referendums.
As of now, proponents of abortion rights have devised strategies to attempt to place amendments about abortion rights on the ballots in seven states: South Dakota, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska, and Nevada.
The Republican-controlled Iowa legislature might declare that the state does not recognize a fundamental right to abortion in a proposed constitutional amendment. This would clarify inconsistent decisions from the state Supreme Court.
Both New York and Maryland will consider amending their respective constitutions to prohibit discrimination based on pregnancy-related conditions and safeguard reproductive freedom rights. Both states safeguard the right to an abortion until fetal viability is determined, a landmark that physicians frequently assess between 22 and 24 weeks of gestation.
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