Ajmer North – A case study on how the tide is turning in Rajasthan

Ajmer North – A case study on how the tide is turning in Rajasthan

Ajmer North is an Urban Assembly constituency which has around 2Lac Electorates. Sindhi, Rawat Rajputs, Gujjars, Brahmins, SCs – many castes have the presence in this assembly segment.

The Constituency has the Sindhi community dominance and Constituency has been represented by nominees of this migrant community since Independence.

As per ECI figures, Ajmer North have 203331 Voters and around 55.85% Voters voted in recently concluded Loksabha Bypoll.

Polling History of Ajmer North

If we analyse the Recent Polling History of this constituency, it’s self-evident that this assembly segment has a tilt towards BJP. Congress has managed to garner a high vote Share in the Assembly election of 2008 & General Elections of 2009. In spite of those elections gone in favour of INC at the state or National level, the Congress has never been able to win this seat in recent years. The single dimensional voting pattern of One Lac Sindhi voters has impacted Congress’ chances for long. Congress had a near miss chance in 2008 when Pushkar based Srigopal Baheti was moved to Ajmer North but lost to Vasudeo Devnani with a narrow margin of 600 odd votes.

Rajya Sabha – Current Composition & Upcoming Polls

Congress has been able to get a range bound vote share of fewer than 50 – lower 40s in recently held elections.

Bypolls

Things suddenly took a U-turn, when after 3 years 9 months; the Loksabha Bypoll for the Seat Ajmer became necessary due to the untimely death of MP of Ajmer.

Congress, though with a slim margin, managed to win the assembly Segment with a Margin of 6975 votes. In this election, Congress managed to bypass the psychological 50% mark by garnering  50.76% Vote share and BJP which previously managed above 60% VS in 2014 Loksabha got reduced to under 45% VS this time.

 

Micro Study of Assembly Segment

Micro Study of Assembly Segment gives us a very peculiar scenario. BJP being a decisive force in the area managed to win more Polling stations, 100 out of 190, yet failed to get the Total Votes in her favour.

BJP managed to win 94 PS and took a lead of 11k Votes where it got more than 50% Vote share and also 6 more PS where Neither Congress nor BJP managed to cross 50% Vote share mark but BJP got more Voting in her favour.

On the Other Hand, Congress managed to win fewer Polling Stations i.e 81 PS to be precise and 9 PS where both national parties did not cross 50% VS mark, Yet, Congress managed to garner so many votes from these PS which not only neutralised the lead of BJP but also gave an edge to INC’s total Votes and resulted in an overall Victory.

Congress managed to have a lead of 17982 Votes from these 90 PS which not only minnow BJP lead of 11007 votes but it won the assembly constituency after decades.

 

Rationale/Conclusion

The Reason of BJP winning more PS yet not able to win the constituency could be found in below table.

1.    BJP got less than 10% Vote share in 11 Polling Stations. This clearly signifies the level of anti-incumbency and Voters unrest in BJP.

2.    BJP was unable to get more than 90% Votes from any Polling Station whereas Congress managed to get 90% Votes from 9 Polling Stations.

3.    BJP, though having a strong presence in the constituency, has managed to get 50% to 90% Votes from 94 PS whereas Congress got the majority of its Votes from 10-50% per PS. This signifies that there has been few BJP influenced Polling areas where Voters voted in favour of BJP but this sentiment did not prevail in all areas of the constituency and resulted in BJP featuring in lowest range of spectrum (0-10%) but not in highest range spectrum(90%+)

4.    Congress got less than 100 votes from One PS (PS  no. 42) whereas BJP got less than 100 Votes from 16 Polling Stations. In these 16 PS, Total votes Polled are 9619 Votes – BJP got 682 Votes (7%), INC got 8531 votes (88.69%)

 

In the end, It could be concluded that BJP should introspect and do more ground connect as so-called Safe seats of Ajmer North and Kekri indicates that Double anti-incumbency, Internal rifts, Disconnect with voters should be managed on the war-footing level. Studying these 11 PS give us an indication that the cracks are very glaring. Out of 6916 Votes casted on these 11 PS – Congress got 6296 Votes (91.03%) and BJP got meagre 314 Votes (4.54%).

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NEWSD and NEWSD does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.

Neeraj

Neeraj is a political observer, he tweets at @_N33R4J_

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