Chief Statistician TCA Anant on Friday said India’s economic growth is estimated to slow to 7.1 percent in the current fiscal year ending compared to 7.6 percent last year 2015-2016.
“The figures for November were available and examined but it was felt in view of the policy of denotification of notes there is a high degree of volatility in these figures and conscious decision was taken not make projection using the November figure,” he said.
Accordingly, the ‘First Advance Estimates of National Income, 2016-17’ did not reflect the impact of demonetisation, effected on November 8 for ban of old Rs 500 and 1,000 notes, and are based on sectoral data for only seven months or till October.
Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2016-17 is likely to attain a level of Rs 121.55 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2015-16 of Rs 113.50 lakh crore, released May 31, 2016.
“The growth in GDP during 2016-17 is estimated at 7.1 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 7.6 per cent in 2015- 16,” the CSO said.
The CSO projections on national income are now in line with the Reserve Bank’s estimates, which too has lowered the GDP growth prospects to 7.1 per cent.
“Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2016-17 is 7 per cent against 7.2 per cent in 2015-16,” the CSO said.
In value terms, the Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant prices is anticipated to increase from Rs 104.27 lakh crore in 2015-16 to Rs 111.53 lakh crore in 2016-17.
As per the data, Agriculture, forestry and fishing’ is expected to expand by 4.1 per cent in 2016-17 from 1.2 per cent.