Social Security 2027 COLA ‘Trump bump’: Social Security recipients may get a bigger increase in 2027 as inflation stays above the level seen in 2025. Current forecasts are around 3.4% to 3.6%, compared with the 2.8% COLA that took effect in 2026. The Senior Citizens League is projecting 3.6%, while independent analyst Mary Johnson has estimated 3.4%.
The term “Trump bump” is being used by some analysts to describe inflation that they associate with policies linked to President Donald Trump. Higher prices can lead to a larger Social Security COLA because the yearly adjustment is tied to inflation.
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How much could Social Security increase in 2027?
A 3.5% increase would mean a noticeable rise for many retirees. The average retired-worker benefit was about $2,086 per month in July 2026. At 3.5%, that would add roughly $73 a month before deductions. A 3.6% increase would add around $75.
The 2027 figure isn’t official yet. Social Security uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as CPI-W, to calculate the adjustment. The calculation looks at the average CPI-W for July, August and September and compares it with the previous comparison period.
The August inflation report released on September 11 showed CPI-W was up 3.5% over the previous year. The September figure will provide the final data needed for the calculation. The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the official 2027 COLA on October 14.
Why the ‘Trump bump’ may not feel like a big raise
A higher COLA doesn’t mean retirees are actually becoming richer. The increase is meant to help Social Security payments keep up with rising prices.
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Tariffs can push up the cost of imported goods and may lead businesses to charge more. Energy and transport costs can also affect prices across the economy. When everyday costs rise, the COLA can also rise, but retirees still have to pay those higher prices.
Medicare can reduce the amount people actually keep from a larger Social Security payment. Part B premiums and other deductions may take away part of the increase.
