In a poll-bound state Rajasthan, where current BJP government is facing resentment from all the directions of state, there is factual information, which proves that BJP government have to face a tough task, to return in power. Following the trends of Rajasthan electoral scenario, since 1993, it is noted that people of the Royal state have not re-elected incumbent government. There are several factors, which decides and affects the electoral trend in Rajasthan.
As per the sources, Rajasthan state politics revolve around regional and caste-based scenarios, which follow an aggressive mode of action. The biggest issue which remained a mystery for incumbent governments was how to solve regional and caste-based issues?
Here is a list of some deciding factors, which is considered to have vital impact on Rajasthan Assembly Election-
Caste Based Politics:
Rajasthan is the epicentre of caste-based politics, where Jat and Gurjar caste voters play a crucial role in government formation. There is around 2.5 lakh Jat voters and 2 Lakh Gurjar voters in Rajasthan and since many years, both Gurjar and Jat community were demanding reservation for their respective castes and all the past governments have failed to complete the demand.
Rajput community, which is another big player in Rajasthan, was with BJP till 2013, however after distancing from former union minister Jaswant Singh, gradually Rajput voters started shifting from BJP and recently, son of Jaswant Singh, Manvendra Singh also resigned from BJP. Currently, there is not a single strong leader from the Rajput community in BJP.
Data shows that the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) also plays a big role in influencing voters in the state. During last assembly election in 2013, BSP managed a total of 3.4% votes and won 3 assembly seats, and massively influenced Rajasthan voters in 2008, where BSP gained around 7.6% of total votes and registered the victory over six constituencies. BSP has always focused on Dalit and minorities votes in Rajasthan, as a result, BSP has maintained a considerable vote share.
Currently, another small player, Bharat Vahini Sena is also ready to influence Brahmin votes in Rajasthan. Founded by Ghanshyam Tiwari, a rebel of BJP is trying to woo the Brahmin community in the state. He is considered as a firebrand politician and holds a strong influence in areas of Jaipur and Sikar of Rajasthan.
The road to victory for incumbent BJP government, which is claiming to return to power, on the foundation of development work done in the last five years, is not going to be easy. Rebel leaders like Manvendra Singh, Ghanshyam Tiwari, Hanuman Beniwal and Kirori Singh Bainsla can become a big obstacle for the saffron party.