India’s month-long general election that started from April 11, are going to conclude with the seventh and final phase today. All eyes are set on May 23 when the results of the Lok Sabha elections 2019 will be declared. Before that, there will be numerous exit polls predicting the fate of candidates who took part in the fray. Exit polls will follow shortly after the polling concludes.
Various national pollsters including News18-IPSOS, India Today-Axis, Times Now-CNX, NewsX-Neta, Republic-Jan Ki Baat, Republic-CVoter, ABP-CSDS, and Today’s Chanakya are going to release Exit polls after the seventh phase of Lok Sabha Election 2019 finishes at 6 pm.
As per Election Commission rules, exit polls can’t be conducted or published till half an hour after closing of the poll in all the states and union territories.
What are exit polls?
An election exit poll is a poll of voters that are conducted immediately after the voters have left their polling stations. It is conducted by a number of organisations and is considered as an indicator to which party forms the government.
How are exit polls held?
Different private agencies use a variety of methods to carry out the exit polls. The polls depend on different methods of sampling used by the organisations. Some agencies do random sampling while some go for systematic sampling. Other parameters used in the exit polls include age, sex, caste, and religion.
What are the statistical methods used to carry out Exits Polls?
The practice of election forecasting in India is a complex one and analysts use different methods to predict the results (preferably with a less margin of error). There are several techniques that are used by scores of organisations such as Cube Law (where seat-share is an important factor), or Index of Opposition Unity (where a party’s vote share assists its ally), or Probabilistic Count (which helps in deciphering large data).
How reliable are exit polls?
One cannot completely rely on exit polls in India. There are reasons behind it. There have been instances when the verdict of an election was predicted incorrectly. For example, in 2004, the exit polls wrongly predicted BJP-led NDA coalition winning again. In 2009 again Congress-led UPA’s seat share was underestimated.
Why are they not allowed to be telecast before voting?
Section 126A of the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951, puts a ban on exit polls from the period between the commencements of the poll until half an hour after the closing of the final phase of the poll.
How is exit poll different from opinion poll?
An opinion poll, sometimes simply referred to as a poll, is a kind of voter behaviour survey conducted to gauge the public opinion before voting takes place, while an exit poll happens right after voting. Through a scientific survey, the views of a particular group of people are ascertained.