Clean Sweep

Rajasthan Bypolls for Loksabha Seats Ajmer and Alwar as well as Assembly Seat Mandalgarh were called as Semi-final to the Assembly Elections due the later year 2018.

All these 3 seats were with BJP which have been handsomely won by Congress this time. This result is a panacea for State Congress which has given dismissal performance in 14th Assembly Elections 2013 as well as 16th General Elections 2014.

This election has raised the stature of PCC President Sachin Pilot as well as his Leadership has got more credibility. These Results are a reminder for present state government as this was the 8th By-election since 2013 and BJP have won only 2 out of it.

Few Important Observations –

  1. Congress won from Kekri Assembly Constituency (Ajmer Loksabha) after 38 years. Congress got 11616 Votes, BJP got 3761.
  2. Apart from INC and BJP candidates on 3 seats, there were 36 candidates. Only Congress Rebel Gopal Malviya saved his deposit, Rest all 35 forfeited deposit.
  3. Alwar BJP’s Candidate Dr Jaswant Singh Yadav did not get enough votes from his own Assembly Constituency Behror. He is presently MLA from this seat. He won with Vote Margin of 18585 (13.04%) in 2013. BJP lost from all 8 Assembly Constituencies of Alwar in this Bypoll.
  4. After 3 Years 9 Months, Rajasthan has sent its first INC MP to Loksabha (Technically, 2 MPs in one go). This has come at the time when Tenure of Congress’ 2 MPs in Rajyasabha is going to be over in April 2018 and Congress will have Zero MP in Rajyasabha from Rajasthan.
  5. Major Reasons for Win/Lose – Double Anti – Incumbency, Internal Rifts & Conflicts, Caste Politics, Poll Management (Congress’ Mera Booth, Mera Gaurav Campaign etc)

Here are my few observations-

Alwar Loksabha –

Comparing 2014 Loksabha Polling trend with 2018 Bypoll trend give many interesting trends.

  1. Rural as well as Urban Voters chose Congress than BJP as BJP got near 1 Lac votes from Alwar Urban seat in 2014 but managed to get half of it in 2018 bypoll.
  2. Three Assembly Seats – Mainly Kishangarh Bas, Mundawar & Alwar urban gave 1.28 Lac Votes to BJP less than 2014.
  3. Behror is a unique seat. BJP candidate is from this seat, it gave meagre 27k votes to Congress in 2014 LS but this time, turnaround happened and Congress got almost three times votes from this seat followed by Ramgarh Which gave almost 45k more votes to Congress than in 2014
  4. Congress won Rajgarh laxmangarh seat in 2014 (the only seat in Alwar LS Poll) and it managed to increase the Vote share on the seat. It added 27k more votes and Vote Margin which was 16k in 2014 swelled to 49k Votes this time.
  5. BJP lost 20.35% Vote share from this seat and INC gained 24.02% from this Seat.
  6. BJP got ZERO votes at Adarwa Village Polling Booth (Dudu Tehsil) and One Vote at Mammana Village Polling Booth (Dudu Tehsil)

Ajmer Loksabha

Comparing 2014 Loksabha Polling trend with 2018 Bypoll trend give many interesting trends

  1. When it comes to Ajmer, Two constituencies which come to mind are –Kekri and Ajmer North.
  2. Kekri has been a traditional seat of BJP since the 80s. After 38 years, Congress managed to win from this seat and Won Handsomely. In 2018, BJP got almost that much votes what Congress got in 2014 from this seat.
  3. BJP managed to get 26K fewer votes from Ajmer South whereas Congress managed to gain almost 25k more votes from reserved seat Dudu.
  4. Ajmer North caste composition has not favoured Congress in recent elections. However, In spite of BJP winning the assembly seat 3 times in a row with the same MLA, Congress managed to snatch away this seat from BJP without any strong location specific caste representation.

Less voting helped Congress too.

Mandalgarh Assembly Seat

In 2013 Mandalgarh gave 83084 (50.07%) Votes to BJP and 64544 (38.90%) votes to INC.

In 2014 Loksabha elections, 72280 (55.15%) Votes to BJP and 48401 (36.93%) votes to INC.

So, BJP and INC votes were in the range of 50-55% and 35-40% respectively.

In Bypoll of 2018, Congress Rebel Gopal Malviya also tried his luck as Independent. He managed to get handsome Vote Share but it did not dither voters to vote for Congress Candidate.

Conclusion

In Assembly, now BJP will have 160 MLAs instead of 161 and in Loksabha 23 instead of 25. The only respite will come from Rajyasabha in a couple of months when 2 MPs of Congress will retire. BJP had won Dholpur Assembly Seat in 2017 and had reached to 161 (BJP got 91548 Votes, INC got 52875) and INC will have 25 MLAs in the assembly for the time being.

This clean sweep has brought a new energy in the cadre and leaders of Congress. On the other side, it is a warning bell for Raje Government which has to go to the poll with double anti-incumbency. Congress has nurtured many leaders and getting the fruit of their labour. Pramod Jain Bhaya (Ajmer), Jitendra Singh (Alwar) to name a few. Ajmer Loksabha victory is a relief for Sachin Pilot. He lost the seat almost 4 years ago in Modi Wave. It will help Congress to stitch all leaders under a single umbrella-like these Bypolls and give BJP a tough fight in upcoming Elections. Hopefully, BJP also will take these results as lesson and will do the introspection as State is just months away from 15th Assembly Elections (as well as 17th General Elections)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NEWSD and NEWSD does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.

Neeraj

Neeraj is a political observer, he tweets at @_N33R4J_

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