There is a probability of an El Nino-like condition around September — the last month of monsoon this year. The India Meteorological Department’s latest El Nino/La Nina update suggests that such a condition could be possible during the transition season during the end of Monsoon this year. However it has also said that a clearer picture of the possibility will be available only in April.
AK Sahai, head, climate research and services, IMD, Pune, told that the forecast indicated that the present weak La Nina conditions were likely to weaken further and “cool ENSO neutral” conditions were likely to establish during the early part of monsoon, followed by “warm ENSO neutral” conditions during the latter part of the season. The warm ‘ENSO neutral conditions’, in layman’s terms, translate to El Nino-like conditions, reported TOI.
El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino is the “warm phase” of a larger phenomenon called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). La Nina, the “cool phase” of ENSO, is a pattern that describes the unusual cooling of the region’s surface waters. El Niño and La Niña are considered the ocean part of ENSO, while the Southern Oscillation is its atmospheric changes. El Nino-like situation if prevails is likely to affect the monsoon of the year as it did in the year 2014.
However, DS Pai who is also from the IMD, Pune said that the initial observations do not suggest any likely impact on 2017 monsoon as the El-Nino like condition is expected somewhere around September for now.
