Housing Prices in 2023 and 2024: Many prospective homeowners were priced out of the market and wondered if they would ever be able to reenter it because to the extraordinary and startling increase in housing prices that we witnessed throughout the pandemic.
Even slightly reduced home prices are unlikely to occur in 2023 or 2024, despite the fact that many prospective homeowners are ready to take advantage of a full housing market bubble burst.
Housing Prices in 2023 and 2024
House prices aren’t falling right now, even if they did decline a little bit later last year. Actually, they’re growing.
As of September, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows that US home prices have increased by 6.08% so far in 2023. Before prices began to decline, they first peaked in June 2022. However, they reached a low point in January of this year and have been rising ever since.
Will housing prices drop in 2023?
As the year draws to a close, it seems inevitable that 2023 will be remembered as a year of escalating housing costs. Prices have risen by 3.93% from this time last year and by a considerable margin from their January low as of right now.
Home values have been remarkably durable, despite the fact that high mortgage rates have reduced demand for homes and slowed the rate of price rise. This is despite the fact that, according to the National Association of Realtors’ October report, existing-home sales are down more than 14% year over year.
Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic, wrote in an email that “the accelerating annual home price growth reflects much of the pent-up demand that exists in the housing market amid very low inventories.”
As we approach the winter months, when fewer purchasers are searching for properties, price rise is probably going to slow down. However, given the scarcity of goods, price reductions are unlikely to occur in the upcoming months.
Will home prices drop in 2024?
In 2024, most mainstream estimates do not anticipate a decline in property prices. By the end of next year, the following is where some of the biggest companies in the business now predict housing prices to end up:
Looking even farther ahead, Fannie Mae predicts that prices may barely decrease by 0.4% in 2025, while the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts an additional 3.3% increase in prices. NAR’s forecasting doesn’t go that far.
Naturally, it’s difficult to predict exactly what will occur in the upcoming months and years. The majority of analysts anticipated a slight decline in prices in January 2023 to offset the exceptionally large rises we witnessed in the preceding two years. However, given what we now know, it seems doubtful that home prices would decline anytime soon, particularly in light of the fact that lower mortgage rates are anticipated in 2024, which is likely to increase demand for homes and drive up prices.
Why do houses cost so much?
Since real estate is an appreciating asset, house values usually rise with time. Although prices have typically trended upward, they do periodically decline, as they did during the Great Recession.
Like many other things, supply and demand play a role in determining home prices. Because mortgage rates dropped and people had more money to spend during the pandemic, demand for homes increased. Price appreciation therefore began to pick up speed.
Low supply made affordability worse. Given that many sellers postponed selling their properties during the pandemic—either because they were worried about contracting COVID-19 or because they were reluctant to enter a competitive buyer’s market—short-term trends might have contributed to this.
When combined, these factors led to an incredible increase in property values. Many people are asking if they would ever drop again because they are now so high. However, given the ongoing shortage of supplies, any decreases would probably be mild.
Significant Shortage of Housing
According to Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, the majority of analysts think that the sharp price rises we’ve seen in recent years are the result of a shortage of supply.
“Starting back in 2015, house prices since then have been appreciating at significantly faster than the long term average,” Duncan explains.
According to Freddie Mac’s 2021 research note, “Housing Supply: A Growing Deficit,” there were 3.8 million less healthy housing units in the US than there should be. The issue is most noticeable in entry-level properties.
The construction of new homes and the listing of existing ones for sale are the two main ways to increase the supply of housing. The fact that baby boomers are holding onto a lot of real estate and aren’t moving out of their houses to live in assisted living facilities or retirement communities as quickly as earlier generations is contributing to the issue.
The greater issue is that the rate at which new homes are being built isn’t keeping up with demand. “The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes,” reads the Freddie Mac research paper.
About 75% of the housing supply chain was damaged, according to Duncan, during the Great Recession. Since no one was building homes during this period, many workers left the industry and many firms closed.
After decades of underbuilding entry-level houses, the supply chain is still healing from this, and builders are finding it difficult to fulfil the demand for inventory that is reasonably priced.
How housing values are impacted by mortgage rates?
Over the past two years, as mortgage rates have risen, homebuyers who are having trouble affording their homes have been priced out of the market. Naturally, fewer buyers translate into less demand, which might affect how quickly home values increase.
According to Freddie Mac, home values began to decline on a monthly basis last year at the same time as mortgage rates began to soar. This decline persisted as 30-year mortgage rates went above 7% for the first time in 20 years.
However, in 2023, rates have increased even further, approaching 8% in October. Despite this, since January, property prices have been steadily increasing.
This could be the result of an even more constrained inventory. The number of sellers prepared to put their houses on the market and forfeit lower rates on their existing mortgages shrank even further as mortgage rates rose. A Redfin review of Federal Housing Finance Agency data as of the fourth quarter of 2022 shows that approximately 92% of homeowners with a mortgage have a rate below 6%, and more than 82% have a rate below 5%.
In essence, fewer people are willing to purchase a home at this time, but there are also fewer homes available for those who are. That’s why, despite an increase in interest rates, housing values are rising.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a good time to purchase a home?
Is it a good idea to purchase a home right now? According to Duncan, the answer to this question is still valid 20 years later: if the price suits your budget, now is the right moment to buy.
“Because you don’t know whether interest rates are going to go up or down in the long term, and you’re simply making a housing decision, as opposed to an investment decision,” he explains.
“A lot of us are just buying a house to live in and take care of our household and family and all that,” Duncan elaborates.
Before entering the market, a lot of eager purchasers intend to wait for mortgage rates to drop. Even though this will undoubtedly lower the cost of obtaining a mortgage, by the time mortgage rates decline, you might have to deal with even greater housing costs.
Purchasing now has the benefit of avoiding the ensuing rise in competition and higher real estate costs associated with lower borrowing rates. Additionally, if rates decline in the future, you can save money by refinancing into a new mortgage.
For individuals who purchase when rates are high, some lenders are even providing “buy now, refinance later” offers.
To get the best mortgage lender for you, browse around and compare offers if you’re thinking about making a purchase right now. Obtaining several quotations will help you make sure you’re receiving a good value.
When will the cost of homes decline?
The majority of analysts think that although property prices may begin to decline in 2024 and 2025, they won’t be going down any time soon. For the foreseeable future, at least, prices will likely rise or remain largely unchanged.
Should I wait for a recession before buying a home?
Purchasing a home shouldn’t wait for a recession, in most cases. One can never predict when a recession will strike, and even if it does, it might not have a big effect on house values. Furthermore, even if prices do decline, a recession may leave you unable to afford to purchase a home.
Should I sell my house now or hold off until 2024?
Since home prices are high right now and are predicted to increase much higher in 2024, the best time to sell relies mostly on your personal circumstances. Remember that if you intend to purchase another property, the high mortgage rates of today will apply, whereas those who purchase in 2024 will probably be able to obtain lower rates.
In 2024, will mortgage rates decrease?
In 2024, it is anticipated that mortgage rates will decrease, with 30-year fixed rates perhaps approaching 6%.
What if the market crashes and housing becomes cheaper?
Although a housing market collapse would result in lower home prices, buyers’ realities are more complicated than that. People would be less able to afford to buy a property in the event of a market meltdown since it would probably result in economic suffering in other areas as well. Furthermore, experts do not currently predict a collapse in the property market.