IMD Announces Complete Withdrawal of Monsoon: India recorded ‘below-average’ cumulative rainfall of 820 mm in 2023, according to the IMD, during the four-month monsoon season (June-September), in contrast to the LPA of 868.6 mm, due to the strengthening El Nino conditions.
Four days later than the expected date of October 15, the southwest monsoon has completely withdrawn from the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported on Thursday.
IMD Announces Complete Withdrawal of Monsoon from India, Slightly Delayed
The weather agency predicts that the northeast monsoon will likely begin over the southern peninsular region within the next three days, as north-easterlies begin to develop over the area.
Due to the postponement of the southwest monsoon’s withdrawal, the initial phase of the northeast monsoon (which brings precipitation to Peninsular India) is likely to be feeble, according to the IMD.
On October 1, HT reported that the monsoon season of this year yielded a meager 94% rainfall, designating it as a “below normal” season that concludes formally on September 30.
Normal precipitation ranges from 96% to 104% of the long-period average (LPA).
The IMD reports that India experienced ‘below-average’ cumulative rainfall of 820 mm during the four-month monsoon season (June-September) in 2023, in contrast to the LPA of 868.6 mm, due to the strengthening El Nino conditions.
IMD Weather Forecast: Heavy Rainfall Predicted for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and More States
In India, conditions of El Nino are correlated with diminished monsoon winds and aridity. Conditions for an El Nino have materialized after a span of seven years.
A low-pressure area that had been positioned over the southeast and adjacent to the southwest Arabian Sea on Thursday had virtually moved westward and was now over the southeast and adjacent to the east-central Arabian Sea, according to the IMD.
According to the weather agency, it is anticipated to undergo a west-northwestward movement for the next twenty-four hours, establishing itself as a prominent low-pressure area in the southwest Arabian Sea. Around October 21, it is expected to intensify into a depression over the aforementioned area and the adjacent west-central Arabian Sea.
A cyclonic circulation is also present in the southeastern region of the Bay of Bengal. It is predicted that by the morning of October 21st, a low-pressure region will likely develop over the central regions of the Bay of Bengal due to its influence. It is anticipated that by October 23, it will have further intensified into a depression positioned over the west-central Bay of Bengal.
The Comorin region and its environs are also characterized by a cyclonic circulation in the lower and middle tropospheric layers.
“We are not expecting any major weather activity over north India during the next 3-4 days. There is a feeble western disturbance that may bring very light rain over parts of north India on Friday and Saturday. The low over the Arabian Sea may intensify further into a cyclone and move away from the Indian coast towards Oman or Yemen, the one over the Bay of Bengal may also intensify further but we will have clarity only over the next few days,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather.
