Tamil Nadu Exit Polls TVK 2026: Actor Vijay’s jump into politics has already made noise in Tamil Nadu. The Matrize exit poll says his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, or TVK, could win around 10 to 12 seats in the 234-member Assembly. Even more striking, the poll gives TVK a 17.5% vote share. In a first big election, that is a strong start for a new party.
Impact on AIADMK
The same poll puts DMK+ at 122 to 132 seats and AIADMK+ at 87 to 100 seats, so the ruling side is still ahead and likely to keep power.
The bigger point is not just seats. It is the vote split. The ABP-Matrize report says AIADMK+ is only 3.2% behind DMK+ in vote share, and TVK’s rise may have cut into the anti-incumbency vote. That means Vijay’s party may not form the government, but it could still change the shape of future elections.
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Vijay’s TVK in big Twist
What makes this election unusual is Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam. The party is being treated as the main wildcard, because its numbers swing all over the place from one poll to another. Matrize gives TVK 10 to 12 seats, with DMK+ at 122 to 132 and AIADMK+ at 87 to 100. P-Marq says the same DMK+ range, but gives TVK 10 to 12 and AIADMK+ 87 to 100.
People’s Pulse is more generous to TVK with 18 to 24 seats, while Peoples Insight puts TVK at 1 to 5. Praja Poll is the harshest for Vijay, giving TVK just 1 to 9 seats. Kamakhya Analytics projects a very close race and even places TVK at 67 to 81 seats, while JVC gives TVK 8 to 15 and says AIADMK may come back strongly.
The biggest shock comes from Axis My India. That poll puts TVK in the 98 to 120 seat range, with DMK at 92 to 110 and AIADMK at 22 to 32. NDTV’s report on the same Axis projection says TVK could win 98 to 120 of Tamil Nadu’s 234 seats. If that kind of result actually happened, TVK would not just be a new party. It would become the main force in the state’s power game.
Why is TVK getting so much Attention?
The reason TVK is getting so much attention is that it may be splitting votes from both big Dravidian sides. One report says the final result could depend on close contests in western Tamil Nadu, Chennai, and nearby urban seats, where TVK may have cut into the vote base of both the DMK and the AIADMK.
There is also a historical angle. The DMK’s famous 1967 win came with about 138 seats in the 234-member Assembly after years of political buildup. AIADMK’s 1977 win came with around 130 seats after splitting from the DMK and carrying much of its old network. TVK is different. It was registered only in 2024, it is contesting all 234 seats on its own, and it is not riding on an older Dravidian machine. That is why even a lower number for TVK is being seen as meaningful, while a high number would be a political earthquake.
