2019 will be a strong coalition Based Lok Sabha election. This factor was released by Congress earlier and now BJP has realized it. Alliance partners are the key to next elections – not only quantity but the quality of coalition will help the national parties.
6 states which have more than 50% will decide the future of various political parties and all of these states have one or more regional players which will decide the outcome – Uttar Pradesh (80), Maharashtra (48), Bengal (42), Bihar (40), Karnataka (28), Tamil Nadu (39).
BJP & Congress are the main political parties right now. Broadly, regional parties will ally with either of the fronts but there will be few parties in the arena who will ally based on the polls outcome. So, ‘Non-BJP Non-Congress’ stance of these parties will continue.
Ideological clashes are things of past. Many parties can switch and surprise the voters with their association with other Parties. This trend has been observed at the time of Bihar and J&K elections and repeat of it cannot be ruled out now.
No political party can contest the election independently. Due to various compulsions, it will go with gathbandhan politics. BJP knew that Parties like BJD or TRS might not support its own candidate so it chose JDU candidate to fetch the vote & won handsomely.
Uttar Pradesh politics is evolving & 2019 election will be a landmark election. BJP is trying hard to win Bengal to cross 300-seats mark. Party president has told that he will visit the state every month and He will for 3-days during each visit. PM, on the other hand, is visiting Uttar Pradesh more frequently to keep the voters intact.
Results of three states will be very important other than Uttar Pradesh or Andhra Pradesh – Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Odisha. Unlike 2014 when regional parties swept these states but did not play any role in central government, this time the role of regional players in central government from these states cannot be ruled out. (TMC won 34/42, AIADMK won 37/39, BJD won 20/21 seats in 2014).
The gathabandan politics is taking shape with each passing day. On papers NDA hit by the departure of TDP, PDP & possibly of Shiv Sena but the aura of Prime Minister can stitch a formidable alliance which can bring NDA return to the power with thumping majority. On the other hand, UPA is also expanding its base. Many entrants to the front from UP, Bihar and old allies from Tamil Nadu etc can help UPA to come back to the power with or without PM-ship staying with Congress Party.
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