In an opinion poll conducted earlier this year in 19 states claimed that nearly half of the voters don’t want to vote for the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi again in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
The mood of the nation (MOTN) survey, conducted by CSDS-Lokniti for ABP news suggested that 47% of the total respondents don’t want Modi led government to be given another chance, only 39% thought of repeating the same combination of government.
Poll-bound Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh are likely to give jitters to the BJP. The survey also hints of a shift in Dalit and Adivasi voters in their preference. Modi Charisma among the Dalit voters drops from 35% to 25% and Adivasis preference also drops down to 37% from the previous 42%.
Dissatisfaction continues to grow with the overall performance of the Modi Government. It continues to rise from 27% in May 2017 to 40% in January 2018 and likely to go beyond 47% before the Lok Sabha Polls 2019.
Low turnout of Urban Voters gives worries to BJP:
In the recent bye-elections for Gorakhpur and Phulpur, BJP was expected to take leads in urban areas. But voters’ turnout in urban segments of the constituency was far lower than rural segments. Therefore BJP never managed to make up for its loses in rural areas. The urban apathy is a warning sign for the BJP. In Gorakhpur, BJP was expecting the lead margins of over a lakh votes, seeing the trend from the past elections. But the results tell us a different story. Once considered invincible among urban voters, now this plight is giving woes to the central leadership. New trends are clearly not a sign of good omen for the party; neither can it feel assured of the guaranteed urban voters.
Post demonetization, urban business class, a huge support base for the party are miffed up with the decision as their business got directly affected. And later poor planning of implementation of GST was a vital blow to the agony of the middle class at large. Unorganized sector workforce and traders were at the receiving end of these ill-managed ambitious projects.
The Government which promised of 2 crores annual jobs is also facing the brunt of the youth, who contributed in great capacity in 2014 polls victory to BJP. Youth may have also turned away because the government is unable to generate sufficient job opportunities for them. Taking its core middle class support base for granted may invite trouble for the ruling party in 2019 Lok Sabha elections
Farmer’s loan waivers fiasco:
Extreme dissatisfaction with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government helped BJP in 2014 to garner farmers support and win their votes. But in the past four and half years, Bhartiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance failed to address the plight of farmers. Their suicides didn’t stop and it led to a nationwide feeling of the anti-farmers image of this government. Farmers of Karnataka held a month-long protest in the national capital Delhi over the agricultural loan waiver. Despite the measures initiated by the BJP ruled states and the Modi government, it failed miserably. Reports of loan waivers made the headline for all the wrong reasons. The amount paid as compensation also adds insult to the intention of the government and mocks the policy implementation. Less than a rupee was given as compensation to farmers of Uttar Pradesh. Apart from the election results, the recent protests by farmers in Maharashtra and Rajasthan show that there is anger brewing in the Indian heartland.
Dissatisfied leaders of the BJP:
Yashwant Sinha, Shatrughan Sinha, Kirti Azad, LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Arun Shourie, Subramanian Swamy are among those leaders of the Bhartiya Janata Party who either have been sidelined from the decision-making process or removed from their official position. These heavyweights also happened to have their upper caste vote banks in their respective constituencies. Repeated ignorance of the above-mentioned leaders is also one of the factors of dissatisfaction for the upper caste voters towards the BJP. People are disappointed with Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he ‘failed’ to bring ‘Achche Din’ as promised by him in 2014.
NDA partners in coalitions are also dissatisfied and they are breaking away from the alliance and sending a clear warning signal to BJP. Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Shivsena have declared that they would be contesting 2019 general election separately. Shiromani Akali Dal is also criticising the BJP. Ignoring their partners will be a tough challenge for the BJP and they have to find a way of keeping its partners intact ahead of mission 2019. All of these internal rumbling within NDA suggests a subtle shift ahead. If BJP doesn’t manage to get the majority on its own in the next Lok Sabha election, which is quite a possibility, in that case, they would need these allies for forming the government. All these proximities are depending upon the landscape of the next year result, which can induce a new chapter of a coalition government.