India’s month-long general election that started from April 11, are going to conclude with the seventh and final phase today. All eyes are set on May 23 when the results of the Lok Sabha elections 2019 will be declared. Before that, there will be numerous exit polls predicting the fate of candidates who took part in the fray. Exit polls will follow shortly after the polling concludes.
(NOTE: Readers are adviced that these datas are mere projections of the voting trends. The final results will be announced by the Election Commission on 23 May.)
|Times Now – VMR||306||132||104|
|Republic – Jan Ki Baat||287||128||127|
|India Today – Axis|
|NewsX – Neta|
8:20 PM | Exit polls give Congress advantage in Kerala
Exit Poll predictions have given the Congress alliance UDF an edge in Kerala. India Today-Axis gives UDF 15-16 seats out of 19.
7:10 PM | Every exit poll can’t be wrong: Omar Abdullah
Every single exit poll can’t be wrong! Time to switch off the TV, log out of social media & wait to see if the world is still spinning on its axis on the 23rd.
— Omar Abdullah (@OmarAbdullah) May 19, 2019
06:20 PM | Here’s a look at who allies with whom?
National Democratic Alliance (NDA)
The NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), ranks as key players in states that send large numbers of MPs to the Lok Sabha.
One example is the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhgam (AIADMK), which currently holds 36 of the Tamil Nadu’s 39 parliamentary seats, making it the third largest party in the Lok Sabha.
In Bihar, home to 40 seats, the BJP has allies in the Janata Dal (United) led by CM Nitish Kumar; and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) led by Ram Vilas Paswan.
In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena is a major ally and is the sixth largest party in the Lok Sabha with 18 seats. Maharashtra is represented by 48 MPs.
Punjab’s Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is another major partner for the BJP.
United Progressive Alliance (UPA)
Indian National Congress led UPA coalition has major partners which include the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Maharashtra; the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu; the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar and Jharkhand; Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka and the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC).
06:00 PM | How are exit polls held?
Different private agencies use a variety of methods to carry out the exit polls. The polls depend on different methods of sampling used by the organisations. Some agencies do random sampling while some go for systematic sampling. Other parameters used in the exit polls include age, sex, caste, and religion.
05:45 PM | What are the statistical methods used to carry out Exits Polls?
The practice of election forecasting in India is a complex one and analysts use different methods to predict the results (preferably with a less margin of error). There are several techniques that are used by scores of organisations such as Cube Law (where seat-share is an important factor), or Index of Opposition Unity (where a party’s vote share assists its ally), or Probabilistic Count (which helps in deciphering large data).
05:00 PM | National Pollsters indulged in predicting polls
An election exit poll is a poll of voters that are conducted immediately after the voters have left their polling stations. It is conducted by a number of organisations and is considered as an indicator to which party forms the government.
Various national pollsters including News18-IPSOS, India Today-Axis, Times Now-CNX, NewsX-Neta, Republic-Jan Ki Baat, Republic-CVoter, ABP-CSDS, and Today’s Chanakya are going to release Exit polls after the seventh phase of Lok Sabha Election 2019 finishes at 6 pm.