Opinion

Who is going to win Uttar Pradesh? It’s not BJP

Uttar Pradesh, with its 80 Lok Sabha seats remains crucial to BJP’s plans to return to power in 2019. In 2014, with 73 seats out of 80 in Uttar Pradesh, it managed to form a single-party majority Government after 1984.

Is BJP going to repeat its performance in 2019?

Bua- Bhatija alliance

Samajwadi Party, under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav, and Bahujan Samaj Party, under the leadership of Mayawati, is jointly fighting the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

Fighting separately in 2014, Samajwadi Paty won 5 seats, Bahujan Samaj Party drew a blank. If they had this alliance in 2014, they may have won 42 seats. This by directly adding the votes their respective candidates got in 2014.

Who is going to win Uttar Pradesh? It's not BJP

Who is going to win Uttar Pradesh? It's not BJP

Who is going to win Uttar Pradesh? It's not BJP

So, the final tally, considering that every voter votes the way he/she voted in 2014, the tally in Uttar Pradesh may look like the following:

  • SP+BSP: 42
  • BJP + AD: 36
  • Congress: 2

Is 2+2 > 4 in Elections

If everyone votes the way they did in 2014, BJP may get 36. But, can we safely assume that the SP & BSP alliance will not get more votes to snatch few more seats from the BJP? The answer is No. In the 3 by-elections for the 3 Lok Sabha seats since 2014, BJP has lost all the 3 to the alliance. Ideally, BJP would have won all these seats, considering its vote base remains intact. This, though, didn’t happen.

It lost the following 3 seats:

  1. Gorakhpur – Won in 2014 by current Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Aditya Nath Yogi
  2. Phulpur – Won in 2014 by Deputy Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Keshav Prasad Maurya
  3. Kairana – Won in 2014 by Late Shri Hukum Singh

So, if we assume that people will vote the way they voted in these by-elections, BJP is all set to lose these 3 seats as well, bringing the final tally to:

  • SP+BSP+RLD: 45
  • BJP+AD: 33
  • Congress: 2

Can Congress Spoil the BJP’s Chances

Despite losing all seats, except Amethi and Raebareli, Congress came 2nd  on following 6 seats

Who is going to win Uttar Pradesh? It's not BJP

Rita Bahuguna Joshi has joined the BJP, so taking the Lucknow seat out of the equation, Congress may win the following seats

  • Saharanpur
  • Kanpur
  • Barabanki
  • Kushinagar

Based on the 2014 votes, BJP currently leads on these 4 seats. If Congress manages to win all these seats, 3 of which, namely Kanpur, Barabanki & Kushinagar, it won in 2009, the final tally for 2019 may look like:

  • SP+BSP+RLD: 45
  • BJP: 30
  • Congress: 5

The data on which the above projections are based on favors BJP, as it was far more popular in 2014 than it is now. Yet, if the 2014 pattern holds, BJP will lose more than half of its seats.

All this is mere speculation though. We all know that if past elections are any precedent BJP would have never won 73 seats in 2014. It won 10 seats in 2009, 10 in 2004. 2019 is going to be far more difficult for BJP, as it is fighting the twin anti-incumbencies of Modi & Yogi raj.

Gaurav Tiwari is a social entrepreneur. He is part of SHURUA(R)T. He tweets at @gauravvns

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